The weekly bottom line

TD Economics


United States

  • The Trumpflation trade continued this week with emerging markets and bonds selling off, as money piled into U.S. equities.
  • The U.S. dollar remained well supported this week, with domestic economic data telegraphing strength while comments by Fed officials suggested a rate hike looks imminent.
  • Highlights of the data-heavy week included housing starts rising to a nine-year high, initial jobless claims falling to a 43-year low and retail sales notching up the strongest two months in just as many years.
  • Core inflation moderated to 2.1% in October from 2.2% in September, while headline ticked up to 1.6% as past drag from energy prices continued to dissipate.


  • The economic data points to a rebound in Canadian real GDP growth in the third quarter, but underlying momentum remains soft.
  • Manufacturing shipments rose 0.3% in September, but fell 0.2% in (price-adjusted) volume terms. The sector has bounced back from the second quarter’s lull, but has just barely made up the ground lost since the Wildfires in May.
  • Canadian inflation remains moderate with overall inflation up 1.5% year-over-year and core inflation easing to 1.7%, following almost two years of close to or above 2% growth.
  • Housing remains a strength for the economy, but higher interest rates and government regulation will curb that in the New Year.

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